Astrology and Probability

Astrology is about probability and correlation. The believers and nonbelievers treat it alike. Believers claim how some prediction has come true and how some astrologer is about to predict her details etc. Where as non believers say how some astrologer is not able to predict it. And how astrology is all wrong.

But astrology is about probability and correlation. It is about getting most of the predictions right. It is never about predicting everything right. Famous astrologer Dr. B V Raman made some mistake in his prediction. I do not have access to the all the predictions of the great astrologer Parasar. I am sure he also would have made some mistakes. It is like weather prediction, which can not be hundred percent accurate.

The great sage Vasistha has made wrong prediction for the muhurta when Ram will be the king resulting Rama going to forest for 14 years in stead of being made king of Ayodhya. Lord Brahma has made wrong prediction for the Muhurta when the Khandav Forest has to be implanted resulting an end to the Khandav. So astrology is prone to error and nobody can tell with certainty that this is going to happen. It is not like when you add alkali to acid, it gives salt water, or when a fruit falls from the tree, it is going to hit the ground. Rather it is most likely it is going to happen. Some of the facts can be told with a higher probability.

IPL Prediction

20-20 matches are like a lottery. It is impossible to predict who will win from a specific game with hundred percent accuracy. This is what my prediction based on current form.


Champion: Being a Bangalorean my heart says Bangalore, and head says Mumbai. I do not want Rajsthan Royals/Deccan charger to take the cup again. As it is a prediction, I go by my head and give Mumbai the first place.

Runners up: I definitely want final between Bangalore and Mumbai, and want Bangalore to win it. But in case Mumbai wins it, I would go with Bangalore as Runners up.

3rd place: RR is my preferred team for 3rd place

4th place: DD will be at 4th place. I hope they will fire after Gambhir returns to the squad and will be able to make to the semis.

1st quarter final: Mumbai Vs Delhi and Mumbai wins
2nd Quarter final: Bangalore Vs Rajsthan Royals and Bangalore wins

Pain of a recruiter

I was reading an article in Silicon India on Human_Resource_or_Harassing_Resource. I was laughing out after reading the article. It is so funny, and the comments are sometimes close to truth. But are the recruiter responsible for harassing?

In boom days recruiter has to recruit people, there are enough open positions and not enough suitable candidates for the position. Recruiters (at least the ones I am closely working with) work more than 12 hours a day and 6 days a week. And they may not be able to find candidates who actually fits the position. In case they are able to find one, it is not sure whether the person is definitely going to join. In case the selected person says NO just 1 day before joining, recruiter has to start the work from the scratch and already would have missed her deadline.

In bad time, recruiter does not gain anything by saying the position is on hold or we will get back to you. She just conveys the message from the hiring manager. Hiring manager makes the decision as the face of the organization, she needs to tell the fact. Job applicant has the phone number/email of the recruiter but not the hiring manager. So applicants call the recruiter. Hey it is not her decision to hire or not. It is her decision to shortlist a candidate or not. So no candidate would probable hear your interview is on hold and we will conduct your interview after indefinite period. Recruiter has the rights to call candidates based on certain inputs. And they do a fairly good job in getting the candidates.

So when one blames recruiters for the bad news or delaying tactics, it is not her wish as well. She might be just doing this as her organization needs it.

Salary regulation in India

When I was studying in school, I was taught the president of India gets the highest salary and others including corporates gets salary less than him/her. Now I see people getting salary much more than the president of India. Flexi salary is the name of the game. People in IT leave their current job and opt for a new job based on salary. IT people get better salary from their peers in other fields.

It does create a vibrant middle class with nice salary and help increasing the GDP. But it comes with a cost.

1) The higher salary creates higher inflation. People can afford sugar 50 rs per Kg. So make the sugar Rs 50 per kg.
2) It creates a division between the people the elite and average
3) It makes everything unfordable starting from house to school. My total education cost is less than one year education cost of my daughter.
4) Builders increase the price of real estate hoping the new middle (elite ) class can afford it and one day the bubble is going to burst.
5) In this process India become a costly place to outsource and there are other cheaper alternatives available.


Common men find it difficult to buy a house. Even average paying software engineer can not afford to buy a house in Bangalore. Her life goes in a rented house.

We do not want a high salary rather want a quality of life. If I were to get one third of my salary but can stay in my own house and give quality education to my kids, I would be more happy than getting salary tripled and not able to buy a house and give quality education to my kids. Education and house are the the essential expenses of the middle class people whose expenses are going at a rate higher than the income level.

So government needs to put a cap on salary for every person, so no pouching based on salary and regulate house pricing and enable quality free education.

Salary negotiation

I get the question about salary negotiation from some of my friends and juniors. I have done it couple of times, some of them were good where as others were mediocre. I am putting an extract of whatever we discussed in a presentable form.

Before putting my ideas, let me clarify I am not an expert in this area and not going to write any brand new idea about it. I will rephrase or reuse the ideas provided by job sites or career advice portals. I am going to add a new dimension of my own.

When negotiation starts: When both employer and job seeker are interested for each other.

Objective: Get an agreeable salary where job seeker can join the employer.

Goal:
Employer: Pay him the lowest salary at which the job seeker is going to join and continue working for reasonable period of time.

Job Seeker: Get the best salary that employer is ready to pay her.

Process:
Employer and job seeker negotiate about salary. Employer mostly ask job seeker to quote a salary she wants. Most experts ask not to throw any figure rather ask the recruiter or hiring manager to put her figure first. Job seekers find it difficult to ask the figure. Or if they ask for a figure, they get an answer saying we would give you 10 percent hike from your current CTC. Many job seekers, mostly those who are paid lower find it difficult to ask for a higher hike. It does not sound good to say I want a 50 percent hike. It sounds stupid illogical. So the dilemma is how to ask for salary of your choice with being logical.

Negotiation is not a fair:
Let us look at the goal of an employer and job seeker. Employer wants to get the job seeker on board with minimum salary. Minimum salary may be 10 percent hike on what a job seeker is getting (even may be to a salary lower than what she is getting in case she was laid off or want to move because of personal reasons etc). To start with the negotiation, recruiter has the full information she needs, including her current salary, experience, any other offers in hand, her resume, interview feedback etc. So she has an idea what would be the lowest salary job seeker is ready to join. Where as job seeker need to know what is the best salary company can provide. It is rarely advertised with job so job seekers has no direct information about it. So recruiters have an edge over job seeker when negotiation starts.

No Pain No Gain:
But job seeker can make it fair by having the knowledge on the salary offered by company for similar position. She should do some research on figuring out what is the salary being paid for similar position in similar companies. Payscale provides some information about the salary. And she can use contacts to figure out what the company is paying. For example, job seeker got a job at Google. While applying for Google, it asks if the job seeker has experience in working in companies like Sun Microsystems, Yahoo, Amazon etc. If the job seeker does not know anybody from Google but knows people from yahoo, she can reasonable assume Google will pay as per or better than yahoo to the person who best fits for the job.

If she still has no clue of what the best company give her, she can ask it to the negotiator. Now let us look at the goal of the employer and job seeker. Recruiter starts with a x percent hike straight away with her goal. Job seeker should not expect the recruiter to do her job. She should start her job to fulfilling the goal: Getting th maximum salary the employer is ready to pay. How about asking a question what is the best salary you pay for this position. One of my friend got around 5 percent more hike than a salary he was ready to join, by asking, you should pay me fairly, so I should not feel that I am being unfair in my salary, so that we can have a good long term relationship.

Some external links on salary negotiation:

ace the interview tips

The Negotiation Dance

Tips for employer

Why astrology is not a widely accepted subject?

Astrology is accepted by many people and not by many others. People go to astrologer to get a prediction of their future and get remedies. But still it is not a widely accepted subject of study and research. I think the following are the reasons why it is not widely accepted as a formal subject.

1) Astrology is different than Sanskrit: Most of the astrology books are written in Sanskrit in stead of English. And educationists look astrology as a subset of Sanskrit, not a different subject all together. Most of the computer books are written in English, still nobody tells computer is a part of English. Once somebody knows basic English, English does not help someone to be better computer specialist. Similarly, one need to know Sanskrit to understand the original books, beyond that Sanskrit won't help to be a better astrologer. Astrology is a different stream all together to be taught by astrologer. It should be derived using mathematics not Sanskrit. Probable astrology developed when Sanskrit was the language of the learned people and now English is the common language among educated people. Astrology should have no problem in adopting english in stead of Sanskrit with the mathematical formula intact.

2)Astrology is not 100 percent correct: Astrology is about probability, it does not say with certainty. But the supporters of astrologer claim a hundred percent correct prediction with examples. Opponents discard it with wrong example. Many astrologer predicted Vajpayee will come to power again in 1998 but none predicted the same about Manmohan Singh in 2008 (at least the ones that post in the leading English dailies). Supporters take the right example where as opponents take the wrong one.

3) Why should one believe in astrology: Astrology has not answered why the prediction can come true. Many people claim it is the position of planet and cosmic rays affect one, they are not able to tell why the position of the planets not that of the people around u affect it. Say sun in mercury in 7th house gives an intelligent spouse why not father at 7th house gives an intelligent partner and grand mother in 7th house gives some other type etc. My honest answer is I do not know why the position of one's father does not matter, but that of Brihaspati matters. It can be a subject of research, but it works. We need to answer why before claiming it to be universally accepted. Similarly astrology says 1st house is for self, 2nd is for wealth and all. But it does not answer why 2nd house is for wealth and 7th for spouse.

4) Intuition: Intuition is an integral part of astrology. One can not be good astrologer without good intuition. Same horoscope is predicted differently by different astrologers. Unless intuition can be quantized, or astrology gives any different answers, it can not be accepted as a scientific study.

Is the growth story of IIM inclusive?

IIMs justify their fee structure with the high return on Investment. It is cheaper than equivalent non-IIM institutes. But hey IIMs are run by Indian government and not by corporates. I read IIMs claim There were no students who left IIM study because he could not afford it. I was not able to digest the fact. But did not have any proof either, so agreed with the claim.

Later I analyzed what might be happening. IIM is so expensive that common people might not be counting it as one of the opportunities. I have a friend who did his engineering with me and masters from IIT Delhi, he did not apply for engineering after his 12th, as the engineering application fee was expensive (the fee was around 100 rupees in 1993).
So there might be some people who might not have targeted IIM because of its expenditure.

My soul was buying the argument but my mind was not. I was confused until we went to Chennai for a recruitment drive. My boss told he did not apply IIM rather went for IISc as the application form for IIM was expensive. He was not ordinary student. He got distinction from Rajasthan (a rare accomplishment in those days) and become vice- president in his thirties.

So there are students who can not think of IIM because of cost alone. IIM can claim it is cheaper than ISB etc. But hey I am talking about IIM, that is government managed and made for the people.

Questions about IIM Salary

I was reading Times of India, and come to know about a salary of 1.6 crores by an IIM graduate. And comparisons among the IIMs and crore plus salary. I have lots of questions by looking what IIMs and paper advertise.

What is the lowest paid job at IIM? Does IIM salary is inclusive?

If IIM students get such salary, people won't mind joining free of cost and paying 10 percent of your salary for the next 5 year. Why don't we run IIM privately and make it free?

ISB has come up with a model of low cost housing. Do IIM have similar project?

What are the background of the person who got 1.6 crore? Is he from aam junta? I heard management jobs are unfair, it is heavily biased towards the upper class people.

Astrology and Engineering: Analysis and Synthesis

I would look astrology as a pure science where research is based on analysis and synthesis. Current astrology is about going and reading what is already present and it does not add much to the glossary. It either refers Parashar or Jemini or mix of both for doing analysis (both are great guys kind of Newton and Einstein of Astrology). if we look at the current physics, we look at Newton or Einstein as a great scientist, but science does not stop there. But astrology do not proceed much beyond them. BPHS (brihat parashara hora shastra) is still the most widely accepted book among astrologer. Not all astrologers predict as per BPHS only, but not many are trying to quantify when to follow BPHS and when not to. And they tell it as mix of science and arts.

Future research needs to quantify it and tell how to follow the details. Astrology is based on stochastic theory and probabilistic model. It needs to auto correct after adding random sample data.

For example, foreign trip was bad in past and people who cant afford to stay at home are using it. Now it is a part of luxury and prestige. So astrology needs correct itself for foreign trips. Marriage is an institution in India, but it is just staying together at some of the countries. SO one needs to analyze accordingly.

Vimsottari dasha is most widely accepted Dasha, but not all predictions coming from Vimsottari dasha are right. Researcher need to figure out when it coming wrong, and what Dasha should be used.

New Drama on Women's Day

Happy Women's day to everybody.

I am vocal about equality and oppose quota in any form. I was quite unhappy when 30 percent quota was applied to engineering students in Odisha in 1995. I would prefer 50 percent girls in engineering colege in stead of 33 percent, but that should be based on their merit. Simillarly I would like to see 50 percent women in Parliament instead of 30 percent, but it should be based on their merit. So I did not like the idea of reservation.

However being an anti-Lalu and anti-Mulayam entity I somehow wanted the ladies reservation bill to pass through the parliament though it is against my personal taste. Manmohan Singh told he is going to introduce the bill on 8th March 2010 on women's day. BJP, Left front, DMK, BJD were ready to support the bill. So congress has the required numbers. So I thought congress will be able to make the historic decision (blunder?). I was busy on the day with my usual work and did not get time to browse through the news, even skipped lunch because of hectic schedule and have not had any food till 7:30 PM. I rushed to cafeteria to grab some food before the next meeting starts, and watching TV for a the news.

I thought the women's bill would have passed in the parliament, and made an history. Hey what I saw was totally different. Congress was no different than Lalu-Mulayam. I started having respect for the Yadav duos. They at least speak what they preach. Not like the congress (even BJP) who speaks a different language and practices a different game.

Do IITians get undue advantages?

I have to take an interview in another 5 minutes and came to a logical conclusion of my work. So I thought of gossiping with my colleagues in stead of starting a new task. A few of my friends were talking how the people from IIT and IIM get undue advantage and they get a job just because they are from IIT and there are other people who are equally or better talented, but do not get the chance etc.

It is true that average IIT or IIM guy gets better placement or better salary than the others. Is an average IITian equivalent to an average of the other? I agree with the media report that current JEE exam does not get the best of all. It is flawed. So are the other ways of evaluation. If we consider marks alone, it is also flawed. I have seen people with less marks who are more capable than people with higher marks. But on an average people with higher marks are better.

Anyway we were not discussing the selection procedure of IIT, rather IITians getting undue advantage over others. When some people apply for a job, somebody's resume gets selected because she is from IIT, where as another's resume gets rejected because she is not from IIT. One gets job, promotion and everything else because of IIT. I partly agree with the first statement. One's resume gets shortlisted based on her college. But do not agree with the second one. When google looks to hire somebody it has limited openings and people above a certain intelligence can only make it. It has to limit the number of applicants. And easiest way to do that is to take only from premier institutes. The other common practices are allow only from specific branch or allow people above a specific percentage to apply for a job. Each of them has its advantage and disadvantage. And recruiter does it to reduce the number of applicants and when she knows she may miss the best fit, but can find a fit in a specific time and it reduces her work.

I have not seen people hiring because the other party is from IIT. It makes their resume stronger to be shortlisted. Average IITian works much better than an average non-iitian. In fact Mohan Das Pai from Infy said, they do not pick only because somebody is from IIT/IIM

Promotion is mostly based on performance and it has nothing ot do with where somebody has studied. It is what one has delivered and how her boss perceived it. People from premier institute get better work and thus promotion.

The environment in IIT/IIM gets the transformation of an intelligent student to an extra-ordinary student. Though I love 3 idiots and most of the content, I agree that IIMs and IITS produce better students.

Astrology and Engineering- Conflict resolution

I need an application which is secure, fast, user friendly, scalable, robust, available with minimum investment. Hey, I was talking about the dream requirement from any investor who wants to invest in IT. He wants it safe and he wants fast. Sending data over https makes it slower than normal http. He wants the application to be available all the time and wants it an minimum investment. Zero downtime means more investment on software and hardware (how is not the scope of the discussion). So the software requirements are conflicting among themselves. So one needs to understand the details to propose a solution.

Horoscope is the reverse of the engineering problem. Here we have the implementation details which can not change (the horoscope) and the same emits results which are opposite to each other and conflicting in nature. As an expert engineer can tune the application to the conflicting requirements, as expert astrologer can tune and predict the horoscope.

Let us say we are predicting about the first child. It can be predicted from 5th house. My 5th house has Venus, Sun and Mercury in it. Venus in 5th house will give daughter where as Sun in 5th house will give son. Mercury has no effect. As per rule venus is powerless when present with sun, so it should give son. Wait a minute, my 5th house Taurus which is own house of Venus and Taurus itself is a feminine sign, so it should give female. So here is the second conflict, whether Venus will overpower sun as it is in her own sign or Sun will over power Venus. By looking at the strength from the vinsopaka bala Sun has a strength of 16.2 where as venus has a Strength of 16.3. So both of them have almost equal Strength. It shows a marginal Strength of Venus and thus a daughter. But when we look at the vimsottari dasha during that time (3rd May 2004), my dasha was Saturn-Venus. Venus was the anatardasha and venus was frind of Saturn which is the dasha, so venus was over powering sun during that time (opposite to the handbook word venus is powerless when present near Sun). So the subject will get a daughter.

If you look at any horoscope you may find both raja yoga and Daridra yoga. Will the person be a king or poor? Roughly 33 percent people has budhaaditya yoga. Will all of them be learned and intelligent? My answer is no to second questions and depends to first question.

When we create a horoscope in south indian style it is different than north indian style horoscope. Which one is true and how to predict. The details need more conflict resolution technique than simple answers.

DOB: 31-may.1976, 21:45 Nayagarh, Odisha

Astrology and Engineering- Importance of Handbook

Astrology uses handbooks like engineering. A electrician who is repairing motor need not know about emf, a handbook on which wire to use and how much is suffice for his work. A person who is repairing television need not know what is a P type semiconductor and what is an N type semiconductor. He would definitely not know about VLSI chip and how it is fabricated. But he can go ahead with the handbooks provided. Other engineering disciplines have similar handbooks which enables a semi-skilled person to work on any engineering discipline.

Same with the astrology. People who look at the charts need not know why this happens to predict better. Sun at 10th house gives fame and power. Mercury in the Seventh House gives an intellectual partner and so on. By knowing what each houses mean and what each planets do one need not refer to the handbook often, and can come up with his own formula. When an astrologer looks at 7th house, she looks about partner. Mercury represents intellect, so mercury in 7th house gives intellectual partner. Moon represents mind, so moon in 7th house gives a moody partner. Mars symbolizes power and aggression, so mars in 7th house gives u an aggressive partner and so on.

Income tax: Are salaried people innocent?

Yesterday I was talking to a colleague. He was quite unhappy as government is not rolling back the hike in petrol price. He explained how petrol is costly in India and state and center government almost put 100 percent tax on it.

I explained reducing petrol price will affect the oil companies. Government will anyway collect tax. Reducing tax to maintain the price is one of the options. But it has other implications such as fiscal deficit. Then he explained how only salaried class is only paying tax where as others are evading it. And how government spends money for freebies which adds to fiscal deficit. And the talk went on.


I agree with him that government should ensure people pay right tax, but do not agree with him that salaried people are honest in paying tax. As there is deduction at source, most salaried people can't do much in evading tax. However many company structure their salary, so that the tax paid will be less. Some of the money they pay as fringe benefits in stead of salary. People forge their rent receipt to evade tax. People go and make forge medical bills to avoid tax and so on. So salaried employee evade the limited amount of tax that they can and businessmen do it with more as they have a better scope of evading tax.

We the salaried people make bulk of the purchase from the shop. My personal observation is most people prefer not to pay sales tax and get the duplicate bill/no bill. By doing so, we encourage the businessman not to show his income and go ahead cheat.